A Probabilistic Method for the Prediction of Earthquake-Induced Slope Displacements

This work presents a probabilistic method for estimating earthquake-induced nonlinear slope displacements. This method is applicable to any kind of slope, embankment and earth/rockfill dam. When coupled with Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis at the slope site, it produces estimates of the annual probability that a permanent deformation of the slope will be exceeded. The proposed method uses a set of 2D numerical analyses with non-linear constitutive relationships for the soil formations to establish a probabilistic relationship between one or more ground motion parameters and the permanent displacement at a specific location within the slope. The analyses, which are performed using the computer code FLAC 5.0 (Itasca, 2005), use as input a set of different recorded accelerograms that include both horizontal and vertical components. The method is applied to the Salcito landslide (Molise, Southern Italy), which was investigated in detail by Bozzano et al. (2008). The stability of the same slope is also assessed using the conventional Newmark’s method and a decoupled approach and the results are compared and contrasted with those obtained using FLAC

Seismic amplification in presence of topography and their consequences for ground motion predictions and seismic code for building: the case of Italy

This work talks about the relevance of topographic effects in local site response evaluations. In this way some Italian test sites, characterized by the presence of a seismic station installed at the top of a steep topography, were investigated. The influence of the morphology was evaluated, at first, by performing rotational spectral ratio analyses, both in term of single station measurements (i.e. horizontal to vertical spectral ratio, HVSR) and, if possible, also considering reference sites (i.e.standard spectral ratio, SSR) and, at second, evaluating the residuals (logarithmic difference between observed and predicted data) estimated in term of acceleration response spectra for period up to 2.0 s. In this way, the ground motion prediction equations calibrated for Italy by Bindi et al., 2010 were considered. Finally, in correspondence of two selected topographies with seismic stations installed both at the top and at the base, the design elastic acceleration response spectra as proposed by the Italian seismic regulations (NTC, 2008) were evaluated in terms of shape and amplitude

Calibration of Soil Amplification Factors for Real-Time Ground-Motion Scenarios in Italy

This study deals with the calibration of soil amplification factors to be used for generating site-specific, real-time (or quasi real-time) ground-motion scenarios in Italy. To this end, the ground response of 100 soil profiles is studied through 1-dimensional (1D) equivalent-linear numerical simulations. Several real, rock ground-motion time histories, grouped into different peak ground acceleration (PGA) classes, are driven through the models of the soil columns. Soil amplification factors are then calculated using different definitions, either as the ratio of the spectral acceleration at the surface to the spectral acceleration at the rock outcrop or by dividing the (acceleration or pseudo-velocity) response spectrum intensity at the surface to the reference response spectrum intensity. Finally, regression analyses are performed to derive empirical equations that relate the amplification factor to different soil parameters, such as the average shear wave velocity VS,30 in the top 30 m of a soil profile and the soil fundamental frequency, f0. The reliability of the amplification factors here calculated is verified through comparison with experimental data recorded during the April 6, 2009 L’Aquila earthquake (Mw = 6.3)

Topographic Effects in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: The Case of Narni, Central Italy

This study presents a probabilistic method for estimating the ground motion hazard at sites presenting topographic irregularities. This method is applicable to topographic crests or ridges which may affect site response, producing 2D (or 3D) amplification effects. The method is based on a set of 2D numerical analyses that are carried out using multiple accelerograms from worldwide weak and strong earthquakes recorded on rock. Numerical analyses are performed to compute site-specific frequency-dependent amplification factors to be included into the ground motion prediction equation used in the seismic hazard computation. The hazard at the top of the ridge is then assessed by running a conventional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) with the attenuation relationship modified to include the site response. An application to the case study of Narni (Central Italy) is presented in this work

Long-range dependence in earthquake-moment release and implications for earthquake occurrence probability

Since the beginning of the 1980s, when Mandelbrot observed that earthquakes occur on 'fractal' self-similar sets, many studies have investigated the dynamical mechanisms that lead to self-similarities in the earthquake process. Interpreting seismicity as a self-similar process is undoubtedly convenient to bypass the physical complexities related to the actual process. Self-similar processes are indeed invariant under suitable scaling of space and time. In this study, we show that long-range dependence is an inherent feature of the seismic process, and is universal. Examination of series of cumulative seismic moment both in Italy and worldwide through Hurst's rescaled range analysis shows that seismicity is a memory process with a Hurst exponent H 48 0.87. We observe that H is substantially space-and time-invariant, except in cases of catalog incompleteness. This has implications for earthquake forecasting. Hence, we have developed a probability model for earthquake occurrence that allows for long-range dependence in the seismic process. Unlike the Poisson model, dependent events are allowed. This model can be easily transferred to other disciplines that deal with self-similar processe

30 years of seismicity in the south-western Alps and northern Apennines as recorded by the Regional Seismic Network of northwestern Italy

The aim of this work is to describe the seismicity of the South-western Alps and Northern Apennines from the very detailed picture provided by thirty years of operation of the Regional Seismic Network of northwestern Italy .PublishedTeatro Metastasio - Palazzo Vaj, Prato, Italy1.1. TTC - Monitoraggio sismico del territorio nazionaleope

Soil amplification in probabilistic ground motion hazard analysis

The article presents a comparison of different probabilistic methods for ground motion hazard assessments that include site effects. The approaches examined here were selected and refined during the different phases of the S2-Project, which this journal volume is addressed to. Different procedures characterized by different levels of sophistication, from the simpler one based on the use of standard ground motion predictive equations for specific ground types to the more complex one based on the convolution of a site-specific amplification function (and its variability) with the hazard curve for reference rock, are compared and contrasted with the aim of pointing out strengths and weaknesses of each of them. In addition, a fully non-ergodic approach that separates the epistemic contribution (i.e., the epistemic uncertainty affecting the soil properties) from the total variability in site amplification is presented. To fulfill the scope of the work, the study focuses on three test sites in Italy characterized by different geological conditions and seismicity levels: Mirandola and Soncino in the Po Plain (northern Italy) and Peglio in central Italy